Nigeria: Mid-term Evaluation of the Nigeria Energy Support Programme and Formulation
The Nigerian Energy Support Programme (NESP) is a technical assistance programme funded by the EU and the BMZ and implemented by the GIZ in collaboration with the Federal Ministry of Power (FMP) in Nigeria. During the first phase, NESP supported five state governments in partnering with private developers using the PPP model to construct and operate 6 mini-grids. The. NESP II builds on a first phase that ran from March 2014 to December 2017. The programme aims to assist the Nigerian Government in enabling and fostering investments in a domestic market for Renewable Energy (RE) and Energy Efficiency (EE) and in improving access to electricity for disadvantaged, mostly rural, communities.
The NESP Phase 2 aims to contribute to Nigeria’s economic and social development through a better access to reliable and sustainable energy. The specific objective of the Action is to enable and foster investments in a domestic market for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency and improve access to electricity for disadvantaged, mostly rural, communities, also in conflict affected areas. Activities under all three components (Comp.1 Electrification Planning and Data Management, Comp.2 Sustainable Energy Access: on-grid & off-grid and Comp.3 Enabling Environment for RE & EE Investments) takes place at federal level, mainly in Abuja, as well as selected states for demonstration actions under each project component. While the Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget and Planning acts as the focal point for all development cooperation, the Federal Ministry of Power (FMP) is the lead sector partner for this programme.
The evaluation assesses the Intervention using the six standard DAC evaluation criteria (effectiveness, efficiency, sustainability, relevance, coherence and ‘early signs of’ impact) and the EU added value. The evaluation team furthermore considered cross-cutting issues such as gender, environment and climate change mainstreaming, relevant SDGs and their interlinkages, and ensured that the principle of Leave No-One Behind and the rights-based approach methodology was reflected throughout the project. The main objectives of this evaluation was to provide the relevant services of the EU, the interested stakeholders with:
- an overall independent assessment of the past performance of Nigeria Energy Support Programme 2, paying particular attention to its ‘intermediate’ results measured against its expected objectives; and the reasons underpinning such results;
- key lessons learned, conclusions and related recommendations in order to improve current and future Interventions.
The main users of this evaluation were the EU Delegation to Nigeria, ECOWAS, Federal Ministry of Finance, Budget and National Planning (the National Authorising Officer), Federal Ministry of Power and the contractors (GIZ).
The global objective of the formulation part was to assist the EU Delegation to Nigeria in the formulation of a successor (Phase III) of the Nigeria Energy Support Programme under the Neighbourhood, Development and International Cooperation Instrument (NDICI) – 2021-2027. Specific objectives of the formulation were:
- To assess how the Nigeria Energy Support Programme Phase 3 should be designed to continually offer technical assistance to the Nigerian power sector in accordance with the Neighbourhood, Development and International Cooperation Instrument (NDICI) – 2021-2027 and relevant EU templates and guidelines.
- Formulate and design a proposed action, based on the analysis carried out during the evaluation, and in accordance with relevant EU templates and guidelines.
- Data collection, background and stakeholder analyses, construction of the Intervention Logic, methodological design of the evaluation and evaluation matrix.
- Contextual and sectoral analyses, policy and regulatory framework analysis, past and on-going effort to support the power sector, risks and assumptions which directly or indirectly affected the envisaged action, and lessons learnt from past and on-going interventions in the sector.
- In-depth desk review, identification of information gaps and of hypotheses to be tested in the field phase, and methodological design of the Field Phase.
- Gathering of primary evidence and analysis, and initial meetings at country level with specific stakeholders (FMP, benefiting agencies, states, NESP team).
- Final analysis of findings, overall assessment, conclusions and recommendations in the evaluation final report.
- Participatory identification process comprising (i) formulation mission, (ii) identification of priority areas for support, problem analysis, scoping capacity assessment.
- Formulation report composed of (i) recommendations for monitoring, evaluation and audit mechanisms, (ii) analysis of project coherence with national policy and plans, (iii) design of the EU response to the Nigerian power sector, (iv) an indicative logframe matrix, (v) identification of five potential implementing agencies/service providers, and (vi) formulation of the intervention logic/theory of change of the proposed action.
- Organisation of the final presentation seminar to project stakeholders and the EUD.